Who will win the Premier League?



This year's title race is one of the most open in the history of the Premier League, with Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City in a three-way tussle that may only be decided on the last day of the season.
Goal difference handed City their first title in 44 years in 2012, while Manchester United finished a point ahead of Arsenal in 1999, with Chelsea just a further three points back
Liverpool had their lead over Chelsea cut to just two points when their 11-game winning run was ended by Chelsea's 2-0 win at Anfield on Sunday, with the two clubs having just two fixtures left to play.
But City are now only three points behind Liverpool with a game in hand and a superior goal difference, after they beat Crystal Palace 2-0 following the Liverpool-Chelsea match.
On Sunday BBC Sport pundit Mark Lawrenson told Match of the Day 2 Extra he expected Liverpool to "blow Chelsea away", but speaking on BBC Radio 5 live the morning after Chelsea's win he encapsulated the changing nature of the title chase by saying:
"Up until yesterday, Liverpool were in control of their own destiny. Liverpool have to win the league this year because Chelsea will be stronger next year, so will City, Arsenal, and Manchester United. This is their opportunity and the fact that they let it slip was obviously for them not good."
There could still be plenty of twists and turns to come, but here is how the rest of the season shapes up for the three title contenders:

LIVERPOOL

The Reds could be as low as third by the time they play again, away at Crystal Palace on Monday, 5 May. Their title rivals City and Chelsea are in action on Saturday and Sunday respectively, and wins for both would put Jose Mourinho's men above Manuel Pellegrini's side by the time Liverpool kick off at Selhurst Park.
Victory at West Ham on 6 April put Liverpool, seeking to win a first Premier League title and first league championship since 1990, to the top of the table for the fourth time during the current campaign.
But the topsy-turvy nature of this season's title race is shown by the fact that they were as low as sixth on 12 January, when they were seven points behind then-leaders Chelsea.
Palace have secured their Premier League status with a fine run of form since the start of 2014, but their 2-0 defeat by City was their third loss in their last five outings at home.
On the final day of the season, Liverpool host a Newcastle side who are comfortable in mid-table and last won in the league at Anfield on 16 April 1994.

CHELSEA

If City beat Everton on the evening of Saturday, 3 May, Chelsea will be in third place when they play struggling Norwich at Stamford Bridge just under 24 hours later.
A win over the Canaries, who have plummeted down the table with a run of five straight defeats, will put the Blues back to the top position that they occupied for nearly two months until supplanted by Liverpool at the start of April.
But Blues boss Jose Mourinho hasrepeatedly written off his side's chances,even greeting the win at Anfield by saying: "We are not in it. The champions will be Liverpool or City, we have nothing to celebrate."
They round their campaign off with a trip to Cardiff, who could be relegated by then but could also require a win to remain in the top flight.

MANCHESTER CITY

City know more than anyone about the fine margins that separate success from failure in the Premier League, having claimed the title on goal difference in 2012.
That hardly begins to describe the dramatic circumstances of the win, withSergio Aguero scoring deep into stoppage time for a 3-2 win over QPR that snatched a 20th title away from local rivals Manchester United.
Some big winning margins this term - with the biggest being 7-0 over Norwich - have given the Blues the best goal difference in the league, but a surprising 2-2 draw at home to lowly Sunderland seemed to put them at a disadvantage.
However, the most recent set of results have revived their title prospects ahead of their trip to Everton on Saturday, 2 May at 17:30 BST.
Everton will need to win to maintain their hopes of a Champions League place - but a draw or win for them would boost their Merseyside rivals' title chances at City's expense.
City follow that with their game in hand at home to Aston Villa, currently without a win in six games, on Wednesday, 7 May. The Blues' season ends at home to West Ham, and manager Pellegrini - whoinsisted after the win at Palace his side are not title favourites - thinks it will still be up for grabs until the last possible moment.
"This league will be decided by a narrow margin, maybe one point, maybe even goal difference," said the Chilean following his side's 2-0 win at Selhurst Park.

WHAT THE STATS SAY

  • Manchester City finished level on 89 points with Manchester United at the end of the 2011-12 campaign, but won with a goal difference of +64 compared to United's +56.
  • City's current goal difference is +58, Liverpool are +50, Chelsea are +43.
  • No team has ever won the Premier League while in third place with three games to play - City were second after 35 games two years ago.
  • The maximum points any side can finish on this season is 86. The highest points haul in the Premier League era is Chelsea's 95 - under Mourinho - in 2004-05. The lowest points total that has won the Premier League title was Manchester United's 75 in 1996-97.

ALSO RANS

Arsenal held top spot for most of the autumn, and again until late January, raising hopes of their first title since 2004. But a downturn in form in March, including a 6-0 humiliation at Chelsea, means the best Arsene Wenger's side can hope for is fourth place.
Early in the season, Tottenham banked a world record fee of £83.5m for the sale of Gareth Bale to Real Madrid, then spent around £100m on new players. But a concerted title tilt never materialised,manager Andre Villas-Boas was sacked in December and their hopes of even a Champions League spot have disappeared.
Manchester United fell a long way short of successfully defending their Premier League title. David Moyes was sacked on 22 April, 10 months after he succeeded Sir Alex Ferguson as manager, with United set to earn lower than 70 points in a league season for the first time since 1990-1 and their lowest league position in Premier League history among a host of other unwanted records.

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